Win rate alone isn't enough
A "94.8% win rate" sounds impressive on its own, but it's incomplete without context. The two questions that matter most: how many trades is that based on, and over what time period?
Sample size
Timeframe
A 5-year backtest has lived through different market conditions — rallies, corrections, high and low volatility regimes. A win rate that holds up across all of that is more meaningful than one calculated only during a calm, trending market.
What "counts" as a win
Always check the definition. Does a win mean the option expired worthless? Or does it include trades closed early for a partial profit? Different definitions can produce different-looking win rates from the same underlying data.
The one thing every backtest shares
No matter how rigorous the methodology, a backtest describes the past. It is not a prediction. Market conditions change, and a strategy that performed well historically can behave differently going forward.
See our methodology page for exactly how we calculate our own numbers, or read next: how Collect52 actually picks trades.