Six years, backtested
The Track Record
Every number on this page comes from walking the exact scoring model the engine runs today, day by day, against six years of historical options data — Score > 60, 70% core-close threshold. Not a projection: this is the full run, except trades removed by three fixed rules because their prices or strikes were on the wrong scale: a loss on a trade that spans a stock split, a return above +100%, or a contract whose strike is under half the stock price. Removing them barely moves the win rate; it lowers the average return, because most of what they remove are impossible-looking wins. See our methodology for the rules and how everything is calculated.
Backtest results through Sep 16, 2026. These are hypothetical results, not live trading, and they are refreshed whenever the backtest is rerun rather than continuously.
87.8%
Backtested win rate
4,384 trades · Sep 27, 2021 – Sep 16, 2026
12.3%
Loss rate
3.0%
Avg. ROC on winning trades
17.7%
Assignment rate
82.3%
Not assigned
Year by year
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Loss rate | Avg. ROC (winners) | Assignment rate | Not assigned | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 192 | 82.3% | 17.7% | 2.3% | 24.0% | 76.0% | Sep 27, 2021 – Dec 30, 2021 |
| 2022 | 900 | 84.1% | 15.9% | 3.3% | 19.4% | 80.6% | Jan 3, 2022 – Dec 28, 2022 |
| 2023 | 808 | 88.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 16.7% | 83.3% | Jan 3, 2023 – Dec 29, 2023 |
| 2024 | 805 | 89.7% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 18.3% | 81.7% | Jan 2, 2024 – Dec 31, 2024 |
| 2025 | 989 | 90.4% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 14.7% | 85.3% | Jan 2, 2025 – Dec 30, 2025 |
| 2026 | 690 | 86.8% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 18.6% | 81.5% | Jan 2, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026 |
Most recent 60 trades
Recent backtested picks
Each row is a hypothetical backtested outcome — what this exact setup would have returned according to the backtest, not a real trade placed with real money. When a backtested pick exactly matches a live engine pick (same ticker, strike, expiration, and scan date), we show the live outcome alongside it.
KWEB$22.50 put, exp Oct 9, 2026
60.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.84%
Closed early · entered Sep 16, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLP$78.00 put, exp Oct 2, 2026
67.9score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.83%
Closed early · entered Sep 14, 2026 · Core Accumulation
MU$930.00 put, exp Sep 25, 2026
79.2score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.10%
Closed early · entered Sep 10, 2026 · Core Accumulation
META$620.00 put, exp Sep 25, 2026
72.8score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.18%
Closed early · entered Sep 10, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLK$182.00 put, exp Sep 25, 2026
67.6score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.13%
Closed early · entered Sep 10, 2026 · Core Accumulation
AAPL$322.50 put, exp Sep 25, 2026
60.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.31%
Closed early · entered Sep 10, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLP$78.00 put, exp Oct 2, 2026
61.0score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.34%
Closed early · entered Sep 9, 2026 · Core Accumulation
AMD$470.00 put, exp Oct 16, 2026
74.3score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.99%
Closed early · entered Sep 8, 2026 · Core Accumulation
ARKK$83.00 put, exp Sep 25, 2026
71.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.39%
Closed early · entered Sep 8, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLP$80.00 put, exp Sep 25, 2026
83.0score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.89%
Closed early · entered Sep 3, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLI$169.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
61.9score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.60%
Expired worthless · entered Sep 3, 2026 · Core Accumulation
SILJ$30.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
79.6score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.88%
Expired worthless · entered Sep 3, 2026 · Core Accumulation
AMZN$255.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
63.9score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.07%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Sep 3, 2026 · Core Accumulation
TQQQ$70.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
63.9score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.43%
Closed early · entered Sep 3, 2026 · Income Shield
META$595.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
62.8score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.38%
Closed early · entered Sep 3, 2026 · Core Accumulation
TSLA$340.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
62.2score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.36%
Closed early · entered Sep 2, 2026 · Core Accumulation
CRM$250.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
60.1score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
-2.89%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Sep 2, 2026 · Core Accumulation
LLY$1130.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
60.8score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.42%
Closed early · entered Sep 2, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLY$111.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
62.6score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.05%
Closed early · entered Sep 2, 2026 · Core Accumulation
CVNA$68.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
61.2score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
-1.79%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Sep 1, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLE$61.50 put, exp Sep 25, 2026
74.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.89%
Closed early · entered Sep 1, 2026 · Core Accumulation
ARKG$45.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
72.1score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.76%
Closed early · entered Sep 1, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLP$81.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
83.4score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+3.03%
Closed early · entered Aug 31, 2026 · Core Accumulation
PLTR$177.50 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
69.4score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.13%
Expired worthless · entered Aug 31, 2026 · Core Accumulation
TNA$64.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
65.4score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
-1.00%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 31, 2026 · Core Accumulation
SQQQ$36.00 put, exp Sep 25, 2026
60.5score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.46%
Closed early · entered Aug 31, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLY$110.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
71.8score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.96%
Closed early · entered Aug 31, 2026 · Core Accumulation
NVDA$212.50 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
68.5score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.63%
Closed early · entered Aug 28, 2026 · Core Accumulation
PANW$340.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
71.4score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.46%
Closed early · entered Aug 28, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XBI$160.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
60.2score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+0.01%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 28, 2026 · Core Accumulation
LITE$850.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
77.9score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.57%
Closed early · entered Aug 27, 2026 · Core Accumulation
LABU$295.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
74.3score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
-6.45%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 27, 2026 · Core Accumulation
GDXJ$124.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
70.8score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.58%
Expired worthless · entered Aug 26, 2026 · Core Accumulation
URA$46.00 put, exp Sep 11, 2026
68.2score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
-7.65%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 26, 2026 · Core Accumulation
GFI$45.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
63.5score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
-2.16%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 26, 2026 · Core Accumulation
FUTU$123.00 put, exp Sep 11, 2026
64.9score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
-5.08%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 26, 2026 · Core Accumulation
KRE$70.50 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
84.0score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+3.40%
Closed early · entered Aug 25, 2026 · Core Accumulation
CRM$192.50 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
79.9score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.59%
Closed early · entered Aug 25, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLP$83.00 put, exp Sep 11, 2026
85.0score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.06%
Closed early · entered Aug 24, 2026 · Core Accumulation
PLTR$167.50 put, exp Sep 11, 2026
72.2score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.68%
Closed early · entered Aug 24, 2026 · Core Accumulation
SOXS$46.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
65.5score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+7.90%
Closed early · entered Aug 24, 2026 · Core Accumulation
ARKK$81.00 put, exp Sep 11, 2026
70.2score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.52%
Closed early · entered Aug 24, 2026 · Core Accumulation
ETHA$17.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
72.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.93%
Closed early · entered Aug 24, 2026 · Core Accumulation
IBIT$42.50 put, exp Sep 11, 2026
68.0score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.68%
Closed early · entered Aug 24, 2026 · Core Accumulation
BITO$10.00 put, exp Sep 11, 2026
73.4score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.41%
Closed early · entered Aug 24, 2026 · Core Accumulation
MRVL$210.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
84.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+3.38%
Closed early · entered Aug 21, 2026 · Core Accumulation
HL$19.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
72.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+3.47%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 20, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLV$169.00 put, exp Sep 4, 2026
70.4score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.27%
Closed early · entered Aug 20, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XBI$160.00 put, exp Sep 4, 2026
61.3score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.50%
Closed early · entered Aug 20, 2026 · Core Accumulation
ETHA$15.00 put, exp Sep 11, 2026
66.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.19%
Closed early · entered Aug 19, 2026 · Core Accumulation
GFI$40.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
69.5score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.52%
Closed early · entered Aug 19, 2026 · Core Accumulation
LRCX$300.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
75.0score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
-0.14%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 18, 2026 · Core Accumulation
TSLA$325.00 put, exp Sep 4, 2026
60.4score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.59%
Closed early · entered Aug 18, 2026 · Core Accumulation
TQQQ$69.00 put, exp Sep 4, 2026
64.2score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.48%
Closed early · entered Aug 18, 2026 · Income Shield
ARKK$77.50 put, exp Sep 4, 2026
61.6score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.78%
Closed early · entered Aug 18, 2026 · Core Accumulation
TECL$170.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
68.7score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+3.11%
Closed early · entered Aug 18, 2026 · Core Accumulation
XLP$83.00 put, exp Sep 4, 2026
65.0score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.42%
Closed early · entered Aug 17, 2026 · Core Accumulation
MU$920.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
73.3score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+3.42%
Closed early · entered Aug 17, 2026 · Core Accumulation
SOXX$545.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
61.3score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+1.75%
Assigned (strategic) · entered Aug 17, 2026 · Core Accumulation
SILJ$28.00 put, exp Sep 18, 2026
66.3score
Hypothetical backtested outcome
+2.87%
Closed early · entered Aug 17, 2026 · Core Accumulation
Backtested performance is hypothetical. It describes how this scoring model would have performed under past market conditions, not real trades placed with real money, and it does not guarantee future results. See our disclaimer and methodology for more on how these numbers are calculated.